The Ukraine War so Far

Time to draw some conclusions.

I have now posted several blog pieces about this war. They have been well read. Most recently I put up a guide to refuting all the ‘blue and yellow’ fools who still believe the crap put out by Atlanticist media.

I have posted a three part article about the Donbas story. I think this is critical to forming the context for understanding the Ukraine war. I also have put out some pretty good stuff about the worldwide political and economic changes which the war is accelerating.

I believe that it is now time to summarize the first four months of this war. It is becoming more clear as to why events are unfolding as they are and where they are heading. There are now some conclusions to be drawn. 

First, I must quickly dispel any lingering delusions about the nature of the conflict. This is a proxy war set up by different factions in the Atlanticist oligarchies in order to attack and weaken Russia. Russia is being attacked because it cannot be controlled and integrated into the Atlanticist world system.

The Atlanticists have long realized that they cannot challenge Russia in a direct military conflict. They have been trying to attack through economic war, organized internal disruption, and by proxy war. They have been grooming Ukraine for a long time as a proxy against Russia.

There has been friction between the American and European elites about how exactly to go about this. However, the Europeans have long been obsequious toward the Americans. It is now apparent that the aim of the Americans is to play Europe against Russia, eliminating both as rivals, real or potential.

Both the Euro and Amero Atlanticists seriously overestimated the effects their sanctions, their economic war, would have on Russia. They seriously underestimated the blowback effects on themselves. The economy of the European Union will collapse without Russian energy and other resources.

It is also clear that the Atlanticists had expected the Russians to back down against their provocations in Donbas. Or if they did not, that Ukraine would deliver a much better resistance than it did. They totally failed to anticipate how the Russians would conduct their campaign.

The Atlanticists are incapable of any concession to Russia. They have a powerful infrastructure of control in Ukraine which will not let Ukraine concede defeat and negotiate terms. The war is set up to be “fought to the last Ukrainian” and then the Atlanticists will look for new ways to keep hounding Russia.

The Russians are sustaining the war quite well. They are committing only a small part of their force at any time. Their casualties are low.

They can keep up their present rate of ammunition expenditure. They have not even had to increase defence spending significantly. Compared to western armies, theirs is a low cost, high efficiency force.

The Russians are doing well economically. The Ruble keeps rising. They are in a perfect situation regarding oil and gas sales; making more money selling less of their finite resource.

The economic sanctions over the past decade have actually been helping the Russian economy to diversify. They are replacing imports with domestic production, which is what any country should try to do. They are finding new export markets away from western countries.

It is becoming clear that the ‘plan B’ of the Americans, if their ‘plan A’ of eating the Russians did not work, involved eating the European Union. When the European economy collapses, Americans will be able to buy it up cheap. Europe will also be forced to buy American; natural gas, petroleum, grain, steel, etcetera.

The American plan B, if they cannot break Russia and the other Eurasian powers, is to isolate them. They will use their navy, and control of the international banking system, to prevent Russia and China from trading with the rest of the world. They believe they can keep as their domain Western Europe, the Americas, Africa, and perhaps the Middle East and India.

They will try to keep most of East Asia under their thumb as well. That seems to have been what the assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was about. He wanted to come back into office and start breaking Japan away from the USA and making it a local hegemon, as it tried to do before world war two.

It does not look like all this will work for Uncle Sam, either. Rather than isolating his enemies, he seems to be isolating himself. Russia and China are developing alternatives to the American controlled transport, communications, and money movement systems, and most of the world is turning away from the American dollar.

The USA is having to debase its currency by issuing new money, because people are not buying its bonds. This had long been the way it financed its huge but ineffective military. All over the world, people are losing their fear of the USA, and confidence in its economy.

The intense propaganda war to try to turn world perceptions against Russia have failed outside of the Atlanticist media bubble. It only works inside the bubble because alternative information has been so sharply throttled. The wider world understands and is totally onside with Russia’s campaign.

Most national governments make a show of criticizing Russian actions, but do not participate in sanctions against it. They do not want to invite retaliation from the Atlanticist western powers, yet they do not want to break with Russia or China, either. They do not want to harm their economies more than necessary, and they know that the growing global supply disruptions are not caused by Russia’s war, but by western sanctions.

The worry that the Atlanticist oligarchy may resort to nuclear weapons if they see themselves losing dominance, is somewhat exaggerated. To repeat, they seem to be shifting from trying to destroy Russia to trying to contain it. They do not seem to be deluded enough to believe they would win any kind of nuclear exchange with Russia.

However, this worry cannot be completely discounted. In a few years the Atlanticists will be facing internal collapse and will then be at their most dangerous. Their behaviour is very disturbing and analogous to a narcissistic bully whose victims have seen through him/her and stood up to the aggression.

Such people usually act very irrationally. They will go all out to eliminate the threat to their control, while trying to create a distorted reality around the situation, in which it is they who are under attack. They will be indifferent to the harm they bring on themselves as long as they can do harm, even much lesser harm, to their target.

Narcissists will usually stop short of complete self destruction, but not always. They are known for killing themselves when they have no way out of their dilemmas. The Atlanticist oligarchy is acting as a collective narcissistic personality and ways must be found to remove its ability to do harm.

Thus, over the next few years the Eurasian powers, Russia and China and their growing number of allies, must act carefully. It must be made impossible for the Atlanticists to use the means of destruction at their control. Most worrisome are its nuclear arsenals and its biological weapons facilities.

Meanwhile, back in Ukraine, the war grinds on. It seems to be coming to a break point. The Ukraine forces seem to be finally running out of munitions to pump into Donetsk and Lugansk.

President Zelinsky seems to be getting worried about being overthrown or assassinated. Some statements by American officials would give him cause for such concerns. Recently the Americans have sharply cut back the amount of funding being sent to Zelinsky’s government.

This does not mean that the Atlanticists have any desire to stop the war. They may want to pause it for awhile until they can revitalize Ukrainian forces. The Russians will not accept that.

Russia has no reason to stop until it have achieved its stated goals; demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. The idea of autonomy for the Russian speaking south of Ukraine has slipped away. What is on the table is either an independent state or a reunion with Russia.

The sentiments of South Ukraine residents recently freed from the rule of Ukraine are clear. There could be no more powerful antidote to the poison being pumped out by western media, than the video interviews from independent journalists working on the war theatre. Very few blame Russia for their suffering or would want to rejoin Ukraine.

The stories and images are harrowing; hastily dug mass graves. People who were clearly civilians, who had been shot dead and left lying for months. People speaking of having been held as human shields by Ukrainian soldiers, their friends shot for any defiance or attempt to escape.

People speak of drugged out Ukrainian forces in their underwear, driving around shooting people at random. They describe Ukraine troops robbing people and businesses at gunpoint. They report people being taken away and never returning.

Probably the sickest joke of the Ukraine war was the Ukraine shelling of a maternity hospital in Donetsk. They had staged a Russian bombing of a maternity hospital in Mariupol earlier on, which was exposed as a staged propaganda stunt. The raw and unedited footage, taken by a courageous independent video journalist, of dozens of pregnant Donbas women hiding in the basement of a maternity hospital, would be impossible to fake.

The sufferings of these people may soon be over. The allied forces are reported to be preparing an offensive in the Donbas sector. The Ukraine forces have run out of everything; men, weapons, ammunition, and money.

The Russian conduct of the war has been brilliant. They faced the need to take a territory while causing minimum civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. They had to do it with a minimum number of forces and avoid excess casualties.

They had to do it against an enemy which used terrorist tactics similar to those used by ISIS in Syria. The Russians had developed their own tactics against such methods in their military assistance mission in Syria. The reason the tactics of the Ukrainian army and especially the Nazi battalions are so similar to those of ISIS is well known; they had the same trainers.

The Russians knew they would have to pay the cost of rebuilding the territory, and would have to govern the population afterward. They also knew they had all the time in the world. They had no need to go deep into Ukrainian territory; the Ukraine army was coming to them, the more easily to be destroyed.

Russian soldiers cannot totally avoid civilian casualties. If Ukraine troops are firing on them from an apartment building, they have to return fire to the source of the firing. They do not know who else is in there with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians do.

The break point is coming. We are at the end of the beginning but not the beginning of the end. This will take some time yet, but it is clear that Russia and allies will win totally.

The Russians will achieve their goal of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. War crimes trials are coming. Russia will determine the future shape of the land and people of present Ukraine.

They have no need or interest in negotiating anything with people who are incapable of negotiation and who have no agency anyway. Ukraine in its present shape is over. The Russian speaking south will decide their own destiny.

As for the Galician speaking north, the homeland of the Banderite Nazis, the western intelligence services pulling the strings there will insure that there is no functioning government left for Russia to sign a peace treaty with. The West entertains ideas of getting guerrilla war going so as to tie up the Russians. They have seeded the north with small arms for that purpose.

However, Ukraine is not a good place to fight a guerrilla war. It is flat and treeless, and the population is mostly urban. All of Ukraine will be dependent on Russia for food, fuel, electric power, and the wherewithal to rebuild.

Still, reestablishing a capable government in the north will be a harder task for Russia than in the south. Yet, there is little doubt that it will achieve it. They are slowly but steadily cleaning up the mess the West has created.

One response to “The Ukraine War so Far”

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