Time to use some Abductive reasoning about The Pandemic.
A little while ago I applied a different razor, Hanlan’s, to the problem of covid. That logical maxim states that you should not attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence. What I concluded was that malice usually comes from incompetence and incompetence usually leads to malice.
Much of the persistence of Covid is in the malicious incompetence of the people in charge. Many of them are incapable of admitting a mistake. But there is also the question of how so many incompetent people have got into these positions and are able to stay there despite their obvious inadequacy.
This calls to mind another rhetorical trope, the post turtle. The story is of someone asking a grizzled old rancher in the American desert what he thought of a particular political functionary.
“He’s another ‘post turtle’” replies the rancher.
He is asked what he means by that?
“Well, every so often, driving the roads, you come on a turtle sitting up on a fence post. It obviously did not get there by itself. It is completely useless there. So, you are left wondering what kind of idiot put it there.”
It is no accident that we have all these post turtles in key positions with influence over public health administration, all over the world. There is malice behind this. To examine where this malice comes from requires a different razor, Occam’s.
Occam’s instrument has been around a lot longer than Hanlan’s razor, and has more prestige. It is not part of “Murphy’s Laws.” It is attributed to a medieval monk called John of Ockham, although he did not originate it either.
What it says is; “do not multiply elements beyond necessity” or “prefer the simplest explanation consistent with the facts.” In practice this means, to apply abductive reasoning. That is, to assemble enough facts, cut out anything which is not relevant, and then find the simplest explanation for them.
Occam’s razor is not really popular in university philosophy departments. These tend to be more influenced by another medieval monk, John Duns Scotus. This frustrated me when I took up some philosophy courses at a fairly hide bound university.
I know that many people were frustrated in the same way. There is always a tension in academia between philosophers and scientists. The word ‘dunce’ developed from ‘Duns Scotus’.
This is the conflict between synthetic and analytic thinking; going from known to known as opposed to using known to find unknown. Or, putting things together to prove what you want, as opposed to taking things apart to learn how they work. A ‘Dunce Scotus’ will say that analysis does not prove anything because it does not show where every element came from.
Whatever; there are really three modes of reasoning; inductive, deductive, and abductive. Inductive is mere synthesis; it is reasoning ‘before the fact’, proceeding from assumptions held as truth. Economists are the biggest inductive thinkers in modern times.
Deduction is reasoning ‘after the fact’, meaning, dealing with actual facts but only within rigid rules. Deductive reasoning really only works with mathematics. Outside mathematics, the more variables you introduce, the more unreliable your reasoning is.
Most true reasoning is necessarily abductive because you cannot work out causes of things in a linear way if there are more than a few variables. The human mind does not work that way. The mind is about finding the patterns in reality.
Science actually does work that way, mostly. To even decide what experiments to do next requires a simplified theory explaining the facts created by the last experiment. Detective work also works this way; finding the simplest way to connect the dots.
So this is how I will proceed in trying to determine exactly what is behind the covid epidemic. I will swing Occam’s razor around, cutting away assumptions which do not add anything to understanding, or that which obscures important points. I will be looking at what has happened and what has failed to happen.
The first question to ask is, why is covid so difficult to control? The answer is, there are powerful interests which for some reason do not want it brought under control.
Which suggests the question; what is these people’s interest in keeping a very damaging pandemic going? The answer is; they believe it is in their interests to reduce the world’s population and keep it passivized.
This suggests the question; was the covid epidemic artificially created? The answer is that it almost certainly was.
This suggests the question; given this capability and motivation, why has the pandemic not been much more severe? I will conclude my chain of reasoning with the observation that if you want to wage a biological war on the whole human race, you want an agent that works slowly and is only just bad enough.
If you introduce some really terrible disease, people will react strongly to it. Governments which are modestly competent will adopt strict lockdown measures. In places where there is no adequate government, panic will result in destruction of what the oligarchy wants to maintain, as well as what it wants to reduce.
The main fact points for question one are; there is a world wide financial capitalist network, often referred to as ‘globalism’, which has control over the key elements of the world’s disease prevention system. They have several interests in keeping a pandemic going. These include; increased profits from imperfect treatments and vaccines, the effect of widespread disease in curbing populations and enabling control measures, and that economic contraction and population reduction increases the relative value of their own holdings.
The counter to this is that many capitalist oligarchs, especially ones whose interests are industrial more than financial, should object to this deliberate spread of disease as it may harm their interests. The response is that these capitalists are not as powerful. They can also be consoled that the pandemic can help to remove social systems they object to.
Instead, the approach of industrial capitalists assists the destructive effect of the pandemic; putting their networks of intimidation and control to work to ‘open up’ the economy. They assume they have an infinite supply of human cattle who can be brought up from anywhere to replace those killed or disabled. They also tend to see an epidemic as a way to break down public goods which they may see as a useless expense, and an interference.
Industrial capitalists in particular, hate anything ‘public’; especially public education and public health. Public health makes an industry out of keeping people alive who should just die. Medicine should be for the useful population, and for the wealthy.
Now we are in the middle of question two. The object of financial capitalism, in reducing the population and the economic productivity of the world, is to preserve their own power. They do not think they need most of the population in order to preserve their own living standard.
Economic decline actually increases the relative value of their own holdings. Slowing economic progress and innovation prevents the rise of threats to their own hegemony.
Again, industrial oligarchs are not strong enough or bright enough to stand against these people. Financial oligarchs believe that manufacturing is of secondary importance; it can be done anywhere, using limited numbers of people.
Financialists believe they can always run the world just by controlling banking and money. They have done so for a long time. They are just now becoming a bit rattled as they discover they may no longer be able to.
It seems that right now they have discovered they cannot fully control the effects of the pandemic. Also, they are finding they cannot contain several countries, which are getting outside their control, and whose power they have underestimated. All this is creating an interesting situation.
But as to our third question; whether the pandemic virus was artificially created, that is the kind of question for which judgement should be withheld until sufficient information is acquired. As one scientist who has been looking into the subject has been quoted as saying; the chain of coincidences is now getting very long.
It seems that this question turns on something called a ‘Furan break’ within the DNA strand of the covid virus. My biological knowledge is quite limited, but it seems this is unlikely to have occurred naturally. It is responsible for the adaptability and infectiousness of the virus.
What is really disturbing about viruses is that it is no longer necessary to have the virus itself in order to propagate it. Viruses are the simplest organisms. All that is needed to produce them is a printout of the genetic sequence.
This is why it has been so quick and easy to produce a vaccine for the disease. This has been pounced on by the ’antivax’ people to prove the ‘hoax’.
What is really interesting is how slightly different versions of the virus seemed to turn up in far distant parts of the planet almost simultaneously. No one is ever able to find a ‘patient zero’ in any outbreak.
Other powerful information points; the American military and intelligence community has this network of biowar labs all over the planet. Incredibly, they are looking for biowar agents which can target specific populations.
The implausible explanation for these is that they are looking for ways to protect populations from epidemics or from biowar. Somehow, doing this has to involve ‘gain of function’ experiments. That is, genetically modifying disease producing viruses.
An interesting question is why the Chinese were involved in ‘gain of function’ research in their Wuhan lab, at the request of the American centre for Disease Control. Perhaps they were trying to learn something about the American’s programs. Yet the Chinese leader has stated publicly that the covid outbreak was a biological attack directed against China, which China successfully defended against by quick action.
There are many unanswered questions about the covid pandemic, but the big question is now sufficiently clear. It was deliberately created and deliberately spread. The effort to keep it circulating continues.
The primary tactic used this effort is to deny that covid is an airborne disease. Thus, the use of masks continues to be discouraged while useless hand washing continues to be driven as a solution. In many cases the use of air cleaning and circulation equipment is being discouraged or actually banned.
Those countries, even poorer counties, which plan their approach to combating covid around the assumption that covid spreads through air, are succeeding in bringing it under control. Covid is increasingly confined to those countries which remain enthralled to global financial capital and the health institutions it funds. The exception to this trend is where there is also an industrial elite which wants the labor force kept ‘opened up.’
So, this is what we see when we reduce irrelevant elements and look for the simple explanation. It may not be what we want to see.
It may be that we do not want to see the truth which this puts before us. That is, the need to deal with those who want to see the rest of us as their cattle herd, or as an out of control nuisance. We need to eliminate them before they do something even more harmful than covid.
This may be too hard for a lot of people. So, they will think about it in a synthesizing way. They will take what is given to them and arrange it into a justification for the idea that nothing can be done about covid, so we just have to learn to live with it.
The countries where that way of thinking predominates are, to repeat, on the way out. The health and mental ability of their labor force will decline, and they will become poor countries.
To conclude all this, let me explain covid and Occam’s razor in a different way. That is, to assume anything other than a plan to create and spread a virus in the world, you have to assume a near infinite number of coincidences. How else are all these people, in responsible positions in all these places, all so incompetent in exactly the same ways?